There is a whole other side to me. A side that comes through now and then. A side that’s been formed from my genes. A side of me I struggle with from time to time. A business side. Scared ya didn’t I ?
Business is extremely important to me. I think I’m getting the hang of it or a better understanding, as each day goes on. Let me explain; My Father (he rocks) is a business consultant. NOT your standard consultant by any means! He’s shown me there’s an art to business. While I fight and sometimes yell when I have to sit down and focus on the projects that are just no fun, literally a temper-tantrum inside every time. Yuk. Projections. Goals and outcomes. Strategic planning. These words have become a staple in my vocab.
My point is this; One, I’m one VERY lucky girl for having fantastic parents and family support. Two, there are many times I’d like to post business stuff on here that I think makes sense for my clients/audience. Three, I’m going to start posting more then just images and client shoots. Whatever and whenever my mood strikes me I’m going to post things.
First up is an interesting article created by Jessica Bair of the Central Penn Business Journal, entitled Bouncing Back? One of her interviewees is my Father, Kirby Martzall, KL Martzall. Go Dad!
CEO confidence up, index reports
Positive news came pouring out of Vistage headquarters in San Diego last month when the organization announced the largest quarterly gain in the history of its chief executive confidence index.
Business leaders across the nation feel the recession has bottomed out, with the end in sight, according to the first-quarter index. The index rose 11.9 points from the fourth quarter of last year. While the gain is significant, the index remains at the second-lowest level in its history.
The index hit its lowest point last year. Across the nation, CEO confidence in the economy had fallen 23.7 points during the fourth quarter of 2008, according to the index. This was the largest quarterly drop in the index’s five-year history.
But confidence is on the rise. At the end of 2008, more than 60 percent of CEOs expected the economy to worsen, but by the end of the first quarter of 2009 that figure fell to 21 percent, the index found.
“The confidence index is really a macro index of the micro feelings,” said John Dame, a midstate Vistage member and managing partner at Harrisburg-based Dame Management Services. “It allows us to see what other executives are feeling while wrestling with the issues of running a company in kind of a new economic era.”
The first-quarter index is a compilation of responses from 2,177 CEOs of small- to mid-sized companies in the U.S. It has a margin of error of 1.6 percentage points.
Vistage is a national group that is dedicated to supporting CEOs. It has more than 15,000 members, including about 250 in the Central Pennsylvania area, said Dame, who serves as a chairman for three local peer groups that meet once a month. He’s been involved with Vistage for more than two years.
Dame and his group members use the index as a measure of what’s happening in Central Pennsylvania as well as a way to gauge the national business community, he said.
“The last quarter of last year was really bad,” he said. “As you go forward through this year, I think we’re going to see the confidence coming back.”
In Pennsylvania, CEOs are beginning to feel more positive about the economy, as well. The first-quarter index found that 41 percent of CEOs in the state felt the economy would improve within the next year, while 40 percent expected conditions to remain the same. The remaining 19 percent thought the downturn would worsen. More than 150 CEOs in Pennsylvania participated in the index’s first-quarter survey.
Alan Garner, CEO of Harrisburg-based Volunteers of America of Pennsylvania, said the Vistage group has been helpful in a down economy. He said he joined Vistage about nine months ago.
The group comprises leaders from varied industries affected by the economy. Garner said he was better prepared when the downturn hit his company because he had observed how other firms’ leaders were responding.
Garner said the first-quarter results of index were encouraging.
“I’m absolutely glad that the indicators are going up, but we know as a nonprofit providing human services that the dramatic needs are still going to be there for a good period of time,” he said.
The index gave the members of Kirby Martzall’s Vistage groups a heads-up on the coming economic downturn in the fall of 2007. At that point, the index showed that CEOs across the country were beginning to question the economy’s stability and the likelihood of being able to grow, he said.
“In my groups, those members have been looking at the changing trends and the impact it’s going to have on business since October of 2007, giving them a real nice head start on preparing and taking action to try and minimize the downside and optimize the upside,” Martzall said.
Martzall, president and founder of K.L. Martzall, a strategic- and succession-consulting firm based in East Lampeter Township, Lancaster County, has been involved with Vistage since 2003. He serves as chairman for three of the organization’s groups in southcentral Pennsylvania.
The index is important because it gives insight into the perspective of top decision makers across the country, Martzall said.
“The index is that early, early indicator that a collection of people who make decisions are seeing something a certain way, and how you see things has a lot to do with what you believe,” Martzall said. “And what you believe directly affects the decisions you’ll make and the actions you’ll take.”
Pat Bosma said she was interested to see that the index showed companies had made enough cuts within the past six months or so that executives did not anticipate the need to further reduce staff. In the first quarter of this year, more than half of the CEOs reported staff cutbacks, compared to the fourth quarter of last year when about a third of the CEOs reported cutting back their staff, said Bosma, senior vice president and regional banking manager for central and northeast Pennsylvania for Rhode Island-based Citizens Bank.
“It’s interesting to see that a lot of those companies have been very assertive to take the necessary action to make sure the company continues to be viable,” she said. “They are poised to take advantage of the uptick when it does come.”
Bosma is a member of one of the CEOs groups of the Central Pennsylvania chapter of Vistage, which she joined about a year ago.
“Quite honestly, you learn a lot more by listening to other people’s issues than dealing with your own,” she said. “I do feel it’s made me a better banker.”
The confidence of business owners reveals a lot about the state of the economy, Bosma said. She said she cautiously applies information from the index when looking at area companies because the economy can vary from region to region. The Central Pennsylvania area benefits from the diversity of industries, she said.
“I do find it fascinating and it is good to see what the business owners are thinking instead of just the economists,” she said. “The confidence index was up tremendously, which is really great to see. I think you have to get that business confidence back to see things move forward.”
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Yea or nay: Midstate executives weigh in on whether economy is rebounding
Tom Wolf, chairman and CEO of The Wolf Organization: “I’m seeing the economy from the point of view of housing, and it seems to me … the rate of decline, maybe, has slowed down. The idea that we’re not in a freefall is a very positive note. In our industry, people are talking about (recovery) sometime in late 2010 (for) residential construction. I’m not sure we’re quite at the bottom, but we’re getting close.”
Andrew Samuel, president and CEO of Tower Bancorp Inc.: “I don’t believe we’ve hit bottom. There’s still some things we’re going to have to face … one of those being the commercial real estate situation. If you have a shopping center with a nail salon, a restaurant … when customers stop going there, they’re going to feel a pinch (and miss payments or go out of business, creating vacancy.) I don’t believe that the weakness has gone through the system fully.”
Dr. Roger Longenderfer, president and CEO of PinnacleHealth System: “There appears to be many indications that the recession is beginning to hit bottom. However, the longer-term impact for health care has broadened. We are definitely identifying more uninsured and underinsured seeking care, more people having difficulty paying their bills, including co-pay and deductibles, and requests for assistance are increasing.”
Byron “Bud” Bergren, president and CEO of The Bon-Ton Stores Inc.: “I’m still very conservative about what’s going on. … I don’t think you’re going to see consumer confidence rise until you see unemployment stabilize and people feel more comfortable about their credit. … One thing we have seen is it’s stabilized, so it’s more predictable. Last quarter we really didn’t know where things were, but for now you can manage it. But I don’t think it’s turned around. I don’t know if I can predict if this is the bottom or not. I would hope so. I still think there’s a lot of unrest out there with the consumer and unemployment. … Sales still are the unknown.”
Rob Bowman, president of Charter Homes & Neighborhoods: “I think the economy might have finally found a floor, with our local economy rebounding a little quicker than the nation overall. Locally, we are seeing more activity and selling more homes as a result of the opportunity for buyers to take advantage of historically low interest rates and the federal $8,000 homebuyer tax credit. If this is the turn, there will never be a better time to get great design, quality and value.”
Joseph G. Wagman, CEO of Wagman Construction Inc.: “Short answer: No. Long answer: The housing oversupply in Pennsylvania will take until somewhere in the 2010-12 timeframe to work off. In the interim, the depressed housing market will continue to be a drag on the regional economy. Similarly, on a more macro level, the international economy is still looking for a bottom, although China’s stimulus spending on state-controlled firms seems to be helping there and will depress demand for our products. Concurrently, the credit crisis will continue to impact access to capital, particularly for those firms who use the private bond markets to raise capital.
Ted Kleisner, president and CEO of Hershey Entertainment & Resorts Co.: Nationally, I agree with the consensus of economists that appears to be saying that we are in the trough, in the bottom, of the recession. Now, how quickly it’s going to respond, I believe, will be regional. … I think, again, Hershey and Central Pennsylvania has that geographic location that has been less affected by the recession and will be more quick on the response curve than other areas.”
R. Scott Smith Jr., chairman and CEO of Fulton Financial Corp.: “My sense is that we have hit bottom. We’re there. The real question is how long we’re going to be here. I certainly don’t expect that, you know, that means we start to rebound rather quickly. … Our mortgage banking business is just setting new records every week. … Boy, that’s a long ways from where we were in October and November. (Also) there’s just this (better) mood that … you didn’t hear at all in February. And you know, a lot of this is psychological.”
William J. Reuter, chairman and CEO of Susquehanna Bancshares Inc.: “We are in unprecedented territory in terms of economic change, so it’s hard to predict the bottom of this cycle. Our own projections indicate continuing challenges for the foreseeable future. For many businesses, the challenge is achieving greater efficiency while maintaining the resources to expand and capitalize on opportunities when the economy rebounds. At Susquehanna, we work to serve as a resource for our customers, offering financial services and expertise to help them navigate this environment.”
